IPL 2022: KKR’s qualification chances go up to almost 19%, SRH’s chances fall to under 13% – All playoffs possibilities in 11 points | Cricket News – Times of India

When the penultimate week of IPL 2022 comes to an end, there are now only 9 matches left to play in the league stage, but even that leads to 512 possible combinations of results.
TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams reaching the playoffs. Although MI and CSK can no longer qualify for the playoffs, as on Sunday morning, May 15, three of the top four places are still open. So far, GT is the only team that has qualified for the playoffs, while KKR after Saturday’s win is working on its chances of qualifying for the next level. This is what the possibilities look like:
* Despite having two games left to play, MI is ruled out with a playoff spot
* CSK is also in the same boat. Two more matches but no chance to qualify for the playoffs.
* KKR has doubled its chances of reaching the top four as its probability for the playoffs has improved from 9.4% on Friday to 18.8% after Saturday’s win against SRH. At best, they can finish third on the points table, but they will share that spot with four to six teams. In the worst case, they will finish eight after the league stage on the points table
*DC’s chances of getting to the top four places have improved slightly to 50%, but at best they can hope for a common second place which they will share with three to four teams
*PBKS match DC step by step and their chances of a top four ranking have also improved to 50%. Like DC, PBKS can no longer top the table, as their best chance is now shared second place shared with three to four other challengers
* SRH’s chances of finishing in the four best places have decreased to 12.5% ​​after their loss against KKR on Saturday. Among all teams, they now have the gloomiest opportunity to qualify
*RCB’s chances of reaching one of the top four places have improved slightly to 81.3%. They can no longer top the points table. At best, they can be second – a place they will share with three to four teams
*RR has a 93.8% chance of being among the top four in terms of points. Their best chance is a common first place that they can share with two to three teams. In the worst case, they can fall as low as in fifth place
*LSG’s nerve-wracking week continues. This is their first IPL season and they can be sure of getting to the top three places on points. They can be split one with three teams, split two with up to four teams and split three with up to three teams
* GT, even in its first IPL season, is still the only team that has a safe qualification and can not do worse than a three-way match for the top position where it ends up third on the net driving frequency
* In short, bet that GT, LSG, RR and RCB make it to the playoffs with PBKS and DC who have a relatively small chance of replacing RR or RCB in the playoffs. KKR and SRH are still in contention, but with a lower mathematical probability.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 512 possible combinations of results with 9 matches left. We assumed that the chances of winning on both sides are equal for a given match. We then looked at how many of the combinations placed each team in one of the top four places by points. It gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 512 possible result combinations, RR first ends up with four points in 480 combinations. This corresponds to a chance of 93.8%. We do not take into account net driving frequencies or “no results” because it is impossible to predict them in advance.

Come back for our updated forecasts Monday (May 16) morning, which will take into account the results of Sunday’s matches.

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